When I first started saving money and investing in my mid 20’s, I was fueled by some mistaken notion that I would get rich fast from the endeavor. I would buy low and sell high. How the stock market worked? I had no clue. Index funds? Tax efficiency? Diversification? Those words didn’t exist to me. All I knew then, (and probably not much more now) were that stocks prices changed over time, going up, mostly.

Years have now passed since I bought my first stock in 2007.

The world has changed.

I’ve changed.

My portfolio has changed.

I’ve made both good and bad decisions as an investor during my time in the market. Luckily, I made more good decisions than bad ones, and so my money has grown substantially with the long bull markets we’ve enjoyed. As the years have worn on, I’ve gotten more conservative with my portfolio. From single stocks, to index funds, to holding bonds and cash. I’ve stumbled my way to a simple approach on investing: 3 Funds to rule them all. But as my approach to investing has simplified, my thoughts on why I invest have grown more complex.

I’m not the same person I was when I first discovered the financial independence retire early strategy. I still plan to retire early, it’s just not an immediate urgent need anymore. I’ve encountered a personal correlation between work happiness and how much money I have.

Simply put, the less money I had, the more I hated work.

Now the opposite is true, I have more money, and now I’m finding work agreeable, maybe even fun sometimes.

Just yesterday my boss came to visit me at work and we sat down to do my review. He told me I would be likely assigned to head up some company wide internal quarterly meetings next year. My chest tightened at the thought. I didn’t want this. I was busy enough already. I hate extra curricular work events, and never attend, but planning and organizing them? That would be my hell. So I politely told him no.

In my past, I would have likely bit the bullet and felt obliged to say yes, less I rock the boat. It would have irritated me and been something dreadful I carried around for a year–worried the entire time about who would attend, where it would be held, what would we talk about… Career wise, running these meetings are a good look–but as a short timer, I don’t care about climbing the ladder anymore.

Saying no, beyond feeling tremendously good to say aloud, was taken well. I’m lucky my boss is cool, and he immediately accepted it and pivoted. For him, it was likely nothing that I said no, but for me, my personality type, I’ve always felt obliged to do what I was told at work. So even though I say no, a lot more at work these days, it still takes a deep breath and internal brace as I say it to my bosses.

I could be completely wrong for the reason why I have this newfound courage at work. Maybe it has nothing to do at all with how much money I have or my plans to quit soon. Maybe it has everything to do with my experience level and confidence? Maybe it has to do with my perception of the value I bring to the company?

Why do I save money and invest? I’m getting benefits from it I never even considered when I first started. Why save so much? For courage? To be able to retire early? Because I never want to worry about money again? Because it’s just a habit now? My specific reasons change with the moment, but there’s an over arching theme that goes beyond FIRE (which has been my reason for the last 5 years).

My overall reason for saving is relief.

I feel relief having money in the bank. It’s like locking my front door after walking in the house. Relief knowing my family is taken care of. It’s a warm blanket on a winter night. It’s hot coffee on a Monday morning. Saving takes the edge off, if you know what I mean. Everything else kind of works its way from that single word: relief.

I’m sure in a few years I’ll have a different reason. I might even think of myself at this age as a foolish and inexperienced investor. But I’m wiser today than I was in my mid 20’s. The older I get, the happier I am with my younger self for starting investing so young, even if it was for naive reasons.

If I were to go back to my younger 24 year old self in 2007, buying that first stock, this is the advice I would give myself: Buy Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google!

Okay, Okay, I’m kidding, kind of. But if I didn’t know the future, say I were starting out today, I would say: Max out your 401k, buy low fee index funds, and read about the Boglehead investing strategy. All this can be read for free online at the boglehead wiki.

Rebalancing Amid the Bull Market

I rebalanced my asset allocations a little earlier than usual this year. Early November instead of December.

I’m sitting at 60% Total US Stock, 20% Total International, 20% Total Bond Fund.

In the cash department, I’m getting away from my HYSA and have started funding SGOV as my cash savings account. Slightly better yield and state and local tax exemption make it better for me. Downsides are liquidity, but that’s what my credit cards are for.

As a rebalanced amid the noise of the bull market and the loud fears of the bears, I’m happy to report I feel really good about where I am allocation wise. I’m ready for a continued run and at the same time, more defensive than I’ve been in years past.

All of this talk of AI bubbles is a bit annoying. My entire investing career there has been talk of being in a bubble. Not that I dismiss this moment entirely, but I know that talking about bubbles doesn’t mean a crash is coming. This “talk” is simply financial media click bait articles and attention seeking fear mongering.

So with that, I will now join in and give my own dreamed up prediction, knowing full well I’ll be wrong.

These 20% return years simply cannot keep happening year after year. 2022 feels like a long time ago and was the S&P’s worst annual year since 2008, but it was a baby as far as dips go, dropping -24.5% from peak. To compare, the Dot Com Crash of 2000-2002 was a drop of -49%. The Great Recession dropped -57% in 2007–2009.

When the market does experience a drop in the next few years, my personal prediction is it will be a heavier drop than 2022. Can you imagine your portfolio losing 50% of its value (assuming you are all in on domestic stocks)? I can and do practice this scenario in my mind.

The world economic structure has changed a bit since our last major bears and crisis’. Our coveted government provided economic data is being defunded and possibly compromised. The Federal Reserve’s independence is being threatened. The power to tax has pretty much been ceded to the President from congress. We saw in April of this year how that worked out on markets, simple social media posts now have the ability to drive the market up and down on a whim. Immigration is being cut to the US. Immigrants are being targeted and terrorized. Who wants to come to the US with these sorts of attitudes? Would you if you were an immigrant?

Populist policies usually never end well for economies. Latin America experienced this from the 1930’s to the 80’s. There was a time when Argentina was a shining star amid world economies. From the late 19th century to the 1930’s Argentina was a top ten in world GDP per capita; wealthier per person than Japan, Germany, Italy, France, during this time. It exported what the world wanted from its resource rich lands, wool, beef, wheat.

Immigrants flooded Argentina during this time. In 1914 roughly one third of the population was foreign born. There is a strong correlation between high immigration and increase in GDP. Simply put, more workers equal more output in productivity. More consumers equal mores demand.

The same can be said for the United States growth to economic powerhouse in this same period from the late 19th century to 1930. This constant flood of people from poor countries has kept prices low for a long time in the United States. From groceries, to restaurant prices, to service prices. The flood of students pursuing higher education has kept research and technology, funded by the government as the envy of the world.

Immigration has helped America’s economy rebound from recessions and depressions. Helped markets grow ever higher after bear markets. I still think the US dollar will remain the world’s de facto reserve currency for decades to come, but the populist and nationalist current has shifted enough to make me wonder if recession rebounds will be as fast.

The United States and Argentina took very different economic and political routes during and after the Great Depression. Both countries had booming 1920’s economies, were both major food exporters, with high immigration, and both were hit hard by the world downturn in 1930.

Why the drastically different outcomes for each country?

The first coup attempt Argentina experienced was in 1930, meanwhile the US peacefully transferred power from Hoover to FDR. Authoritarianism took hold in Argentina there after. Political instability became structural and ingrained with coups nearly every decade after. The United States experienced its first coup attempt in 2021.

Argentina’s economic decline had a myriad of factors contributing to it. One of which was protectionalist policies. The others, coups, weakened institutions, sticky inflation. Most all self inflicted. I won’t discount the world wars and world wide slowdown in the 1930’s outside of Argentina’s control. But immigration to Argentina fell sharply after 1930. The lack of immigration inflows led to a cycle of lower GDP growth. A sort of doom spiral that persists to this day.

In the 1930’s, Argentina started a protectionalist program called Import Substitution Industrialization (sound familiar to lets bring manufacturing back?). This forced the country to look inwards for growth, rather than outwards. Meanwhile, in 1934 the United States thankfully abandoned a similar policy (Smoot-Hawley tariffs), and began New Deal policies. FDR’s New Deal was socialist in nature. Borrowing heavily from Vienna’s spearheading decades earlier. The New Deal looked to reform and recover, not replace markets or imports like the ISI.

The US, although reluctant to get involved in the Second World War, eventually did get sucked into the conflict. That foreign policy decision, combined with neoliberalism, made the US the superpower it is today. Rebuilding Europe and Japan allowed American Imperialism to weave its business tentacles deep into foreign economies. While American defense forces occupied and protected, allowing foreign allies to focus on rebuilding, service personnel brought with them American culture, music, movies, baseball, fast food to name a few.

But today, again, we’re seeing a reversion of what was built during and after the Cold War. We are abandoning our allies. Our foreign policy is becoming transactional, one of bullying and bluster, rather than quiet power. The US has pulled back from promoting and defending democracy worldwide. Germany is rearming. Japan is rearming. Both in part due to the instability of the US.

Ok, so you get my point. There are some similarities to modern day America and early 20th century Argentina. This has the potential to be bad. No, the US is not heading down the road to irrelevance in the next few decades. But things won’t be getting any easier if we continue down this path that has been well travelled by countries enamored with populism and authoritarianism. The 20th century has a long tally of victims who fell for this dangly carrot on a stick and went off a cliff. Nothing lasts forever, including exceptionalism.

But I’m an optimist. Or…I was…before 2025 rattled me.

If there’s any evidence of that, it’s my stake in America’s future by way of my life savings in stocks and bonds. America has suffered worse in its history than this current era. Ancient Rome was able to last as long as it did by pivoting and remaining nimble and adaptable. The US must also be able to pivot and change. Nobody likes change, including myself, but it’s inevitable. In fact, a change is occurring right now before our eyes.

Happily Disengaged Updates

Money Update

Spending for October? Here it is.

We spent a bit more than usual due to our vacation. What’s not on here is payout to home insurance ($3,000) and half of my property tax ($2,947)–but these are saved for year round and essentially paid monthly as I save in my Pro Rated line items.

The Travel line includes a bunch of random travel things, big items are: Long term parking at the airport ($450). A rental car in Sicily ($401). A few stays Airbnb ($538), resort in Sicily ($2952), and hotel fees in Munich ($85). Lastly, a Ryan Air flight ($186). I also swear, for the second time, I will never fly Ryan Air again. Other misc. stuff were cooking classes in Rome, a tour of the forum in Rome, museums in Germany (the residenz was dope, thanks for the recommendation FI for the people) and Oktoberfest fun.

All in the vacation was a blast. We splurged big time in Sicily. That island blew my mind. I wasn’t sure what to expect, but the beaches and water were just phenomenal. I can’t recall a more swimmable beach I’ve ever experienced than we had near our hotel. The sea was like a swimming pool. Perfect for kids.

We also splurged on taxis/Uber more than we have in the past. Sometimes it’s just more convenient getting to and from an airport in a car. Maybe its age, but after along flight or all day train ride, the last thing I want to do is hop on a metro or bus or walk miles looking for my place.

I had a much better experience in Barcelona my second time around than I did in 2010. We didn’t stay in the tourist hub and had no itinerary. Which let us wander around for hours with no phone or google maps to heed. The new way of travel, using google maps to get around is convenient, but man, I sure hate it. I spend half the time staring and checking my phone rather than enjoying the scenery. I’m going to make a more concerted effort to just wander and get lost rather than have a destination routed out on the next trip.

I know Barcelona is an expensive city and over touristed, but man, they sure have upgraded that city since my last visit. It’s just so walkable. The weather and sea make for beautiful scenery. It’s so family friendly and oriented. The parks and playgrounds are out of this world amazing. They spend good money on playgrounds for kids, and my daughters had so much fun. There are so many markets on the streets that we stumbled upon with drinks, tapas, and live bands.

I really was dreading going back to Barcelona, because I didn’t care much for it my first time there, but especially since reading about all the protests. I’m glad it got a second chance, because it might be one of my new favorite cities. This time around there was no touristy things to do or see and it made it much better.

Seville was another city that exceeded expectations. It reminded me of Sacramento, with its river, heat, and second city vibes.

The food was just spectacular and the biggest reason why I love travel. Spain topped the list for best food for me. Though Italy was a close second. And Germany, I love German food. I know people talk shit about the culinary scene of Germany when compared to its neighbors, but I love some hearty filling food. Especially the Bavarian variety. Currywurst, roast pork, chicken, and duck. Potato dumplings. Sausages and Schnitzels. And the beer. It’s probably the best beer in the world.

I joke to my wife and say I must have been German in another life. Well, I just checked my ancestry DNA profile, which was just updated, and I’m 2% southern German! Somewhere down the line I had an ancestor from beautiful Bavaria. So when I go to Oktoberfest, I’m not just going to have a good time, I’m going home. Haha.

We ate out a ton at Restaurants in Europe, hence the big number here. I’d always told myself when I was young and broke in Rome 15 years ago, that if I ever returned later in life, I would not hold back on the food scene.

Life Update

Now that we are back I’m looking forward for spending and saving to get back to normal. We’ve only been back a few weeks and already I have another vacation booked. No joking. This time it’s something I don’t usually do: an adults only cruise with my friends in April to Catalina and Ensenada, Mexico. I will shamefully admit I was shocked by how much cheaper it was compared to the international trips I’ve taken this year.

I guess I’m one of those who needs to have something on the books at all times to look forward to.

I’m finally back to submitting stories to publishers. It’s been a long while since I’ve sent something in. Blogging has been on the back burner due to this.

I have a bunch of houseplants now.

We bought a nice standing shelf for our front living room and loaded it with different varieties of house plants. It looks nice having a “green wall” in my living room right next to my large front window. We don’t have a tv in that front room and I spend a lot of time reading there, since it’s quiet. Just having that greenery around really brings peace to the room and makes reading much more enjoyable. I love those plants so much I’m already itching to buy some more after the holidays to fill other spaces in my home.

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What are your thoughts? How often do you rebalance? Best culinary destination you’ve ever been to? Thoughts on the AI bubble? Thoughts on anything?