With markets pushing ahead full steam, inflation seemingly tamed, unemployment hovering at record lows, I can’t help but stop, look around, and just admire the landscape around me. For anyone pursuing financial independence, now is a damn good time to do so. Pretty much anything thrown into a broad domestic index fund will produce a return. For cash savers, 4%-5% interest rates don’t look so bad. I know I’m enjoying my HYSA after years on just avoiding cash.

There was a time not too long ago, when inflation was skyrocketing and the Federal Reserve was cranking up interest rates, and the market was in a nasty bear, that it felt as if the 1970’s might make a return appearance. That nasty word stagflation was thrown around. I felt during this time as if my FIRE dreams would be on perpetual hold as the economic conditions of the country seemed to be turned upside down. Talk of a recession dominated the headlines.

Turns out the Federal Reserve might have pulled off an incredible feat, more like a miracle. Much has been learned from when Paul Volcker disinflated the US economy back in the early 80’s, and the federal reserve had no qualms in using interest rates to beat back the inflation monster in a Paul Volcker type way. They held tight when everyone was calling for them to drop rates. As a citizen raising a family, and as an investor pursuing independence from work, I can’t help but be grateful for their due diligence. We are now back in line to how inflation was in the years leading up to 2020.

See the below chart of our current inflation increase and decrease:

We are now back in the goldilocks 2% annual inflation rate that economists believe is healthiest. Here’s what the federal reserve says about the 2% inflation rate: “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability.“

So 2% annual inflation rate has been achieved and we have a Federal Funds rate of 5% (which will likely get another series of cuts). Meaning, as investors and savers we are getting a decent return on our fixed income. Other than keeping portfolio stability, there is now another great benefit to holding bonds; we get favorable yields.

To add another favorable condition to FIRE, unemployment in the US is also at all time lows, as of October it was 4.1%. This means a vast majority of Americans are receiving income and can spend or save. The more people spend, the more the companies investors are invested in can make money, and in turn have their stock valuations increase. Which of course makes all of our portfolio’s grow. More fuel for us pursuing financial independence.

Below chart is the unemployment rate in the United States.

Lastly, the stock markets are hitting new highs. We all know this. For good measure I’ll add the chart for the last 25 years.

Just damn, this SP 500 chart is a thing of beauty. I’ve been investing with intent and consistently since 2013. In 2016, I took steps to invest more. In 2020, my wife and I took the FIRE plunge and began shoving in 50% of our net income. We’ve pulled back in the last year to around 40%, the reduction having to do with my need to build cash before I pull the plug and travel splurging.

Of course, there is a segment of the US that can’t find comfort in the data I’ve provided above. That 4% unemployment rate means there are some 7 million fellow citizens out of work, under 2 million are collecting unemployment benefits. Those that are working, not all make enough to take advantage of the imposing bull market. But the numbers are small. And unless you are one of the unfortunate few, these are good roaring times. There will always be a segment of society in free market systems that are the have nots, luckily in America, the opportunity is there for the taking.

I don’t subscribe to the glass half empty ‘millennial generation’ has had it the hardest argument.

As a millennial born in 1983, yes there were some hardships on the way to today. I’m a veteran and participated in the invasion of Iraq following the ‘war on terror’ as a 19 year old. I turned 20 at sea, in the Persian Gulf. I was laid off in 2008 multiple times at the age of 25. I struggled to find and keep working steadily through 2009-2011. Work-wise things didn’t improve till 2013, and this when I started investing.

But through the bad comes the good. The opportunities.

The terrible market crash and bear market of the GFC offered up a bull market that has held strong and gone up for nearly 15 years. The housing crisis and deflationary environment of the Great Recession allowed me to buy a home in 2015 at a low price. The low price of my home sure looks good now in 2024, but I will tell you in 2015, I sure thought the price was high. Too damn high. I almost didn’t buy my current home because of that. I had in my mind both recent memory of the housing crisis and my friends losing their homes and lower prices just a few years earlier.

Did I over pay for my home? I did, then. I remember looking at Zillow and seeing how much my neighbors paid for their houses, hundreds of thousands of dollars less, and thinking I missed out. I paid near double my next door neighbor’s home by 4 years.

Of course, now, through the 2024 lens, I got a damn good deal.

What I’m saying is that it’s never easy.

There’s always risk. Only looking back can we say that we had it ‘easy’ and if the risk wasn’t taken, well then, we can easily say we had it ‘harder’ than another generation.

How an average millennial can say they had it harder than any other generation is pretty hard for me to stomach. Our generation’s stock market has been fantastic. Housing prices dropped substantially and coincided with ultra low interest rates. All a millennial really needed to do post 2009 was stay employed, be a good worker, and invest.

In the early 1980’s unemployment was high. In 1982 it was at 10.8%, the highest since World War 2, the entire decade of the 80’s never dropped below 5%. The 1970’s were plagued by high inflation and low growth. Investing in the 90’s were great, despite high transaction fees and smaller access to investing for the average American, none of which are problems these days now that investing has been democratized thanks to the internet, and fees lowered due to Bogle leading the charge.

All in all it’s been easier to invest as a millennial than previous generations. We don’t need newspapers to check stock prices. We don’t need to call stock brokers to make deals for us. We don’t even need to buy a full stock or ETF if we don’t want.

So things may look tough now for those on the ‘outside’ or those who feel stuck. Prices are high for both stocks and homes. But this is an opportunity. In 2034, today’s conditions will look like a ripe opportunity for both the stock market and houses. Interests rates are likely to be cut in the near future, so the possibility to refinance a mortgage to a lower rate, like I did, looks promising. And if rates don’t fall, then homebuyers are at least locked into inflation hedged mortgage rates.

For younger people, this is a damn good time. No wars. No Great Recessions. No housing crisis. No terrorism threats pervading the national narrative. Think back just 4 years ago when the economy was essential shut down due to the virus, the stock market crashing and trading halted, now think to today and how great it is to go out and socialize, how nice your portfolio is YTD, how there’s interest rates to supplement our savings accounts.

And for those my age and in my generation, we have to stop and just enjoy how good it is today, economically. Especially when we have a first hand comparison to look back upon, like the rocky road of the first decade of this century.

This is a great time to be on the road to financial independence. It’s also a great time to be grateful for where things are at this exact moment in our financial lives. I suggest we all stop looking out towards some random future, or missed opportunities of the past, and enjoy the present for a few seconds, before heading back into the grind.

As an investor there’s only so much we can control; our savings rate, our investment vehicles, and that’s it. The rest is up to things we have no control over. We don’t have control over our returns, or interest rates, or whether we are in a recession or not. So let’s stop, just for a moment, and simply bask in the knowledge that all the things we have no control over as investors are absolutely in our favor today.